6
Appen
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 7
Le Mans · Prix Reine Berengere Stakes · 6f 211y
#6
Rank
Odds
35/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Le Mans | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Clairefontaine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Dax | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Dax | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | La Teste De Buch | 2 | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-03 | La Teste De Buch | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 8-8 · tight 89/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 57% | +0.02 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 01/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 21/08/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 73% | -0.09 |