4
Fonromy
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 8
Le Mans · Prix De Sarge-Les-Le-Mans Stakes · 1m 7f 199y
#6
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 1 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-23 | Dax | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Mont De Marsan | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Dax | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Marseille | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 3-6 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength53%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 21/01/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 09/02/2026 | 14th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |