5
Story Way
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 7
Le Mans · Prix De Sarge-Les-Le-Mans Stakes · 1m 7f 199y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
89%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Compiegne | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-30 | Dieppe | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-06 | Dieppe | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-16 | Dieppe | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 56/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 44% | -0.11 |
| 15/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |