3
Arok Atao
2yo Colt · 8-13 · Draw 5
Le Mans · Prix De Chaufour-Notre-Dame Stakes · 1m 1f 152y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-10 | Clairefontaine | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |