2
Nereus
2yo Colt · 8-13 · Draw 3
Le Mans · Prix De Chaufour-Notre-Dame Stakes · 1m 1f 152y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Vichy | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-09-03 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +40.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 21/09/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |