3
Kenzel
3yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 8
Le Mans · Prix Du Mondial Du Lion - Prix Des Oeillets Stakes · 7f 209y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Le Lion D'angers | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-05-16 | Dieppe | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-12 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 4-10 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 11/09/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 12/01/2026 | 9th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 23/04/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 02/08/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |