5
Mr Lope Cen
3yo Colt · 8-13 · Draw 2
Le Mans · Prix Du Mondial Du Lion - Prix Des Oeillets Stakes · 7f 209y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | La Teste De Buch | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | La Teste De Buch | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | La Teste De Buch | 1 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Chantilly | 1 | 4th | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Chantilly | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 7-10 · tight 72/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength3%
Delivery trend -11.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 16/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 04/05/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 15/07/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 67% | -0.30 |
| 05/09/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |