1
Ciccio Boy
8yo Horse · 9-8 · Draw 10
Le Mans · Prix De La Chapelle-Saint-Aubin Handicap · 7f 209y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.4 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.6
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Angers | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Le Lion D'angers | 3 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Le Lion D'angers | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Saint-Malo | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 64/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength12%
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 28/04/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 05/07/2026 | 14th | 28/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 64% | +0.03 |
| 20/08/2026 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 29% | -0.14 |
| 10/09/2026 | 13th | 100/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 21/09/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |