6
Ker Welen
8yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 7
Le Mans · Prix De La Chapelle-Saint-Aubin Handicap · 7f 209y
#10
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Le Lion D'angers | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Le Lion D'angers | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Deauville | 3 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Nantes | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Nantes | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength93%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 31/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 16/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 04/07/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 09/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 20/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 13/09/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 62% | +0.35 |