4
Rougegarde
9yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 5
Le Mans · Prix De La Chapelle-Saint-Aubin Handicap · 7f 209y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Saint-Cloud | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Deauville | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-24 | Clairefontaine | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 40/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength56%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/2025 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 21/04/2025 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 09/06/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 24/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 14/11/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 17/03/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/04/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |