2
Toimy Son
7yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 3
Le Mans · Prix De La Chapelle-Saint-Aubin Handicap · 7f 209y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength38%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Deauville | ? | 4th | 9th | −5 |
| 2026-06-17 | Salon-De-Provence | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Toulouse | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-27 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 2 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-02-18 | Pornichet | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Pau | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 13/11/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 02/01/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 11/01/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 18/02/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 27/04/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |