10
Excessive
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 10
Le Mans · Prix De Champagne Handicap · 7f 209y
#8
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 7.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Clairefontaine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Compiegne | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Clairefontaine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 15th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/10/2025 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 25/04/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.10 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 58% | -0.31 |
| 13/09/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |