11
Ferdy
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 9
Le Mans · Prix De Champagne Handicap · 7f 209y
#12
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 7.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Clairefontaine | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-07 | Pornichet | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Pornichet | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 150% of fieldRange 11-15 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -14.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 07/01/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 15/06/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 06/07/2026 | 12th | 18/1 | 5% | 8% | +0.03 |