Alien Princess
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 74
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-03-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 21/05/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 02/06/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 24/02/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 24/03/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 18/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 27/09/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |