Clay Soldier
6yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 85
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 10/05/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 19/07/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 38% | -0.53 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |