Emily's Joy
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 8 · OR 81
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-08-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 14/01/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 11/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 21/02/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 11/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 29/03/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 10/07/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |