Nit Witness
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 11 · OR 72
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 25% | -0.70 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 1/2 | 97% | 20% | -0.77 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 24/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 33% | -0.61 |