IvyArcIvyArc
4

Outrage

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 60

Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f

#9

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength67%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Turfway Park 12/12/2024 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 73 · 1m Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/12/2024 · OR 73 par12/12C6OR 73C9 @ Turfway Park 02/01/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 75 · 1m Fas 120 · below its mark02/01/2025 · OR 75 parC9 @ Turfway Park 08/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 72 · 6f Fas 120 · beat its mark08/02/2025 · OR 72 par8/02C9OR 72C8 @ Turfway Park 27/02/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 74 · 6f110y Fas 120 · below its mark27/02/2025 · OR 74 parC5 @ Mountaineer 05/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 69 · 5f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/10/2025 · OR 69 par5/10C5OR 69C5 @ Mountaineer 20/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 70 · 4f110y Slo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 70 parC8 @ Mountaineer 05/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 72 · 5f110y Fas 118 · below its mark05/11/2025 · OR 72 par5/11C8OR 72C5 @ Mountaineer 18/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 76 · 5f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/11/2025 · OR 76 parC7 @ Mountaineer 26/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 82 · 4f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/11/2025 · OR 82 par26/11C7OR 82projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-11-26Mountaineer?7th6th+1
2025-11-18Mountaineer?5th2nd+3
2025-11-05Mountaineer?3rd3rd0
2025-10-20Mountaineer?2nd-1th+3
2025-10-05Mountaineer?3rd0th+3
2025-02-27Turfway Park?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/1227/025/1126/11
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 5-11 · tight 61/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength12%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/12/20246th10/147%50%+0.03
02/01/20255th7/282%60%-0.22
08/02/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
27/02/202510th5/287%0%-0.87
05/10/20253rd12/137%50%+0.13
20/10/20252nd9/153%80%+0.27
05/11/20253rd8/158%60%+0.02
18/11/20255th14/126%43%+0.17
26/11/20257th14/126%25%-0.01