The Little Sultana
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 6 · OR 76
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-09-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 26/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/01/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/02/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 04/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 21/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |