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3

We'll Do It Live

5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 70

Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼1
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Turfway Park 17/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 82 · 5f110y Fas 120 · below its mark17/12/2025 · OR 82 par17/12C8OR 82C8 @ Turfway Park 02/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 81 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark02/01/2026 · OR 81 parC8 @ Turfway Park 18/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 81 · 5f110y 120 · below its mark18/02/2026 · OR 81 par18/02C8OR 81C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 89 · 5f110y Fas 122 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 89 parC5 @ Thistledown 22/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 84 · 5f110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 84 par22/06C5OR 84C7 @ Thistledown 09/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 80 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 80 parC7 @ Thistledown 30/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 78 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 78 par30/07C7OR 78C7 @ Thistledown 27/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 80 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/08/2026 · OR 80 parC7 @ Thistledown 16/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 79 · 5f110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/09/2026 · OR 79 par16/09C7OR 79projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Thistledown?6th5th+1
2026-08-27Thistledown?6th5th+1
2026-07-30Thistledown?2nd1st+1
2026-07-09Thistledown?1st0th+1
2026-06-22Thistledown?4th1st+3
2026-05-14Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1214/0530/0716/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 9-11 · tight 82/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/12/20253rd13/266%80%+0.14
02/01/20262nd1/195%88%-0.07
18/02/20264th13/266%50%-0.16
14/05/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
22/06/20264th10/382%25%-0.57
09/07/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
30/07/20262nd10/382%83%+0.01
27/08/20266th9/276%17%-0.60
16/09/20266th11/486%0%-0.86