9
Alter The Stars
6yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 9 · OR 54
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 47/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 16/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 06/08/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 28/09/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |