5
Amalfi Lady
6yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 58
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#11
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 8-11 · tight 77/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 12/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 07/07/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 11% | -0.65 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 29/09/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |