Denali Rae
7yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 6 · OR 62
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2022-06-24 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2022-05-12 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2022-04-01 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2022 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/03/2022 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/03/2022 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 01/04/2022 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/05/2022 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/06/2022 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 28/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |