11
Lil Breezzy
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 11 · OR 69
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
69%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength69%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 30/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 24/08/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 17% | -0.71 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |