3
One Violent Affair
6yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 56
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 8-11 · tight 77/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 07/01/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 06/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 22/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 10/04/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 08/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 07/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |