Diferencia
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 79
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
59%
Place Prob
50%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-04-05 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2025-02-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-01-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2024 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 45% | -0.20 |
| 02/01/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 02/02/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 05/04/2025 | 10th | 10/11 | 95% | 18% | -0.77 |
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 18/01/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |