Fifth Gear
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 64
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-06-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 03/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |