5
Quince
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 5 · OR 64
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 9-12 · tight 78/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/03/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 22% | -0.36 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 13/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |