Sister Sola

5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 56

Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼1

Strength60%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-22	Presque Isle Downs	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-08-30	Mountaineer	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0
2026-07-29	Mountaineer	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2026-07-14	Mountaineer	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-07-05	Mountaineer	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-06-23	Mountaineer	?	5th	5th	0	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 6-12 · tight 64/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▬

Strength7%

Delivery trend +0.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
22/10/2025	5th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53
17/05/2026	6th	10/1	47%	44%	-0.03
31/05/2026	1st	15/2	61%	100%	+0.39
23/06/2026	5th	2/1	89%	50%	-0.39
05/07/2026	8th	13/2	66%	0%	-0.66
14/07/2026	1st	9/2	76%	100%	+0.24
29/07/2026	5th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53
30/08/2026	7th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
22/09/2026	8th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00