3
Super Engreida
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 64
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength63%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 8-12 · tight 74/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength9%
Delivery trend -8.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 20/12/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 08/02/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 13/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 27/09/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |