Tafaany
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 12 · OR 75
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Charles Town | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-09-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-07-09 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 22/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 11/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 14/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 09/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 19/09/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |