IvyArcIvyArc
2

Beloved Country

2yo Colt · 9-4 · Draw 3

Pontefract · British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Camelot colt who has displayed ability at long odds both starts, albeit not threatening for win purposes when seventh of 10 in a Doncaster maiden (1m) 23 days ago. Certainly appeals as the type to do better again and fancied to be thereabouts.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Sandown 28/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 7f Gd 12828/0832 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 1m Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS12/092projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Doncaster27th6th+1
2026-08-28Sandown37th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/08/20267th80/10%33%+0.33
12/09/20267th80/10%33%+0.33