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4

Magwitch

2yo Colt · 9-4 · Draw 5

Pontefract · British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6y

#5

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

550,000 gns Night of Thunder colt. Down the field in valuable York maiden (7f) on debut in August and whilst he was more alert from the stalls, he probably did too much too soon when again well held at Ayr 18 days ago. Likely type for handicaps in due course.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 10.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 7f GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS21/0823 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 1m Goo 13317/093projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 3
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr39th9th0
2026-08-21York212th11th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 5-5 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -80.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/202612th25/10%15%+0.15
17/09/20269th9/276%11%-0.65