Desert Smoke
2yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 5 · OR 70
Pontefract · Constant Security Serving Yorkshire Racecourses Nursery · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Musselburgh | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 3 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-10 | Newmarket | 3 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 12/09/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 38% | -0.05 |