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8

Kigali

2yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 7 · OR 67

Pontefract · Constant Security Serving Yorkshire Racecourses Nursery · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Went the wrong way from promising start in maidens but proved he's not a lost cause switched to a nursery when second in 8-runner contest at Yarmouth (7f) 3 weeks ago. Needs to back that up now returned to 6f.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength61%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Salisbury 14/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 6f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS14/0634 @ Kempton 29/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 6f Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS29/0644 @ Windsor 13/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 6f12y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS13/0744 @ Sandown 06/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 5f10y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS6/0845 @ Yarmouth 15/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 67 · 7f3y Goo 127 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 67 par15/095OR 67projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Yarmouth52nd2nd0
2026-08-06Sandown49th8th+1
2026-07-13Windsor49th8th+1
2026-06-29Kempton47th6th+1
2026-06-14Salisbury36th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0629/0613/076/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 63/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/06/20266th20/10%50%+0.50
29/06/20267th12/137%33%-0.04
13/07/20269th40/10%0%0.00
06/08/20269th250/10%0%0.00
15/09/20262nd33/10%86%+0.86