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4

Prosperity Angel

2yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 3 · OR 70

Pontefract · Constant Security Serving Yorkshire Racecourses Nursery · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

87%

Place Prob

68%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed benefit of her debut experience when off the mark in a 5f Thirsk maiden (5f) in August. Respectable efforts both outings since, hampered early when third of 7 on nursery debut at Hamilton (5f, soft) 2 weeks ago. Return to 6f will hold no fears and she's nicely berthed in stall 3.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength62%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Catterick 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 5f GF 12815/0754 @ Thirsk 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 5f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS7/0843 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 71 · 5f182y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 71 par27/083OR 715 @ Hamilton 20/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 71 · 5f7y Hvy 131 · beat its mark20/09/2026 · OR 71 par20/095OR 71projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-20Hamilton53rd3rd0
2026-08-27Carlisle33rd1st+2
2026-08-07Thirsk41st0th+1
2026-07-15Catterick53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/077/0827/0820/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 38/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength21%

Delivery trend -31.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/07/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
07/08/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
27/08/20263rd10/382%80%-0.02
20/09/20263rd9/276%67%-0.10