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7

State of Gold

2yo Filly · 9-3 · Draw 2 · OR 68

Pontefract · Constant Security Serving Yorkshire Racecourses Nursery · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

State of Rest filly who scored readily from the front on her handicap bow in 10-runner event at Beverley (7f, good) in August. Appeared to do too much in front when ninth of 10 in nursery at Carlisle (6f) since but well drawn to attack again here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Redcar 20/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 5f Goo 12520/0452 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS29/0523 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR - · 6f Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS12/0635 @ Ripon 18/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 6f Goo 12518/0656 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 63 · 7f75y Goo 135 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 63 par13/086OR 635 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 68 · 5f182y Goo 129 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 68 par9/095OR 68projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle59th9th0
2026-08-13Beverley61st2nd−1
2026-06-18Ripon52nd2nd0
2026-06-12York37th5th+2
2026-05-29Carlisle25th1st+3
2026-04-20Redcar58th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0429/0512/0618/0613/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 29/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength42%

Delivery trend -2.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/04/20268th9/276%13%-0.64
29/05/20265th20/10%33%+0.33
12/06/20267th80/10%57%+0.57
18/06/20262nd6/168%90%+0.22
13/08/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
09/09/20269th4/179%11%-0.68