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2yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 6 · OR 74

Pontefract · Constant Security Serving Yorkshire Racecourses Nursery · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

13%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improvement looked to have stalled but following 9 weeks off/gelding operation, he duly stepped forward to make a winning nursery debut at Ayr (6f, soft), relishing the more testing conditions. Raised 4 lb on the back of that and he could have more to offer now he's up and running.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼2
Strength91%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Leicester 25/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 5f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS25/0422 @ Newmarket 15/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 6f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS23/0532 @ Musselburgh 06/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 5f1y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 6f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS12/0634 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 72 · 5f1y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 72 par3 @ Leicester 04/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 72 · 6f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 72 par4/073OR 724 @ Pontefract 17/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 70 · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 70 par2 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 68 · 6f Sft 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 68 par18/092OR 68projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr21st-3th+3
2026-07-17Pontefract45th4th+1
2026-07-04Leicester37th5th+2
2026-06-30Musselburgh43rd2nd+1
2026-06-12York33rd1st+2
2026-06-06Musselburgh23rd-1th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/046/064/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength92%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/04/20263rd9/153%82%+0.29
15/05/20264th7/163%75%+0.12
23/05/20267th12/137%14%-0.23
06/06/20263rd4/179%67%-0.12
12/06/20263rd9/153%86%+0.33
30/06/20263rd2/598%60%-0.38
04/07/20267th2/189%25%-0.64
17/07/20265th10/147%33%-0.14
18/09/20261st40/10%100%+1.00