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9

Bloodsweatandtyres

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 5 · OR 68

Pontefract · Autism In Racing Handicap · 6f

#13

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

All-weather novice winner whose record is patchy this year but more encouraging signs in blinkers of late, catching the eye and proving himself as effective on turf when sixth behind Fiscal Policy in a C&D handicap 18 days ago. Unexposed as a sprinter if he can build on that with visor now fitted.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▼1
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 8.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.9
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 11/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 7f14y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS11/0945 @ Newcastle 01/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 7f14y Std 1324 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 22nd of 22 · OR 79 · 7f Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 79 par23/054OR 791 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 76 · 6f Sta 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 76 · 7f14y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 76 par27/074OR 765 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 74 · 7f218y Goo 134 · below its mark14/08/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 71 · 7f15y Std 136 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 71 par2/095OR 715 @ Pontefract 17/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 70 · 6f Gd 142 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 70 par17/095OR 70projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Pontefract56th6th0
2026-09-02Newcastle56th6th0
2026-08-14Thirsk512th12th0
2026-07-27Southwell45th4th+1
2026-06-27Newcastle110th5th+4
2026-05-23York422th21th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0927/062/0917/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 35/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength61%

Delivery trend +0.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/09/20253rd50/10%60%+0.60
01/11/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
23/05/202622nd12/137%0%-0.37
27/06/202610th125/10%10%+0.10
27/07/20265th33/10%64%+0.64
14/08/202612th33/10%21%+0.21
02/09/20266th13/266%55%-0.11
17/09/20266th25/10%55%+0.55