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11

Fierce

6yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 9 · OR 67

Pontefract · Autism In Racing Handicap · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner last season including over C&D who has performed well in defeat throughout 2026, posting a good second at Southwell (6f) prior to shaping much better than distance beaten suggests at Beverley (5f) 3 weeks ago, badly hampered entering final 1f. Interesting back at this longer trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 09/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 75 · 5f Std 135 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 75 par9/105OR 754 @ Newcastle 18/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 73 · 5f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/11/2025 · OR 73 par4 @ Southwell 26/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 71 · 6f16y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/11/2025 · OR 71 par26/114OR 715 @ Southwell 07/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 69 · 4f214y Std 129 · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Carlisle 18/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 68 · 5f Goo 128 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 68 par18/055OR 685 @ Beverley 16/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 69 · 5f Goo 134 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 69 · 5f Sta 129 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 69 par26/065OR 695 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 67 · 6f17y Std 132 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 67 par4 @ Beverley 16/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 68 · 5f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 68 par16/094OR 68projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Beverley46th5th+1
2026-08-06Southwell52nd2nd0
2026-06-26Newcastle56th6th0
2026-06-16Beverley53rd3rd0
2026-05-18Carlisle52nd2nd0
2026-04-07Southwell53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/107/0426/0616/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength82%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/10/20255th9/276%50%-0.26
18/11/20255th12/137%64%+0.27
26/11/20257th33/10%0%0.00
07/04/20263rd20/10%71%+0.71
18/05/20262nd11/271%89%+0.18
16/06/20263rd5/174%75%+0.01
26/06/20266th6/168%55%-0.14
06/08/20262nd15/261%88%+0.27
16/09/20266th18/15%55%+0.49