Fiscal Policy
7yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 1 · OR 72
Pontefract · Autism In Racing Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
75%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Pontefract | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-09-17 | Pontefract | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Thirsk | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Pontefract | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-08-07 | Newmarket | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 87% | +0.04 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 11/07/2026 | 17th | 22/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 24/07/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/08/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 17/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/09/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 77% | -0.09 |