Fortamour
10yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 4 · OR 72
Pontefract · Autism In Racing Handicap · 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ripon | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ripon | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Ripon | 4 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Newcastle | 4 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Newcastle | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 69% | +0.53 |
| 07/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 06/02/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 12/03/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/04/2026 | 12th | 18/1 | 5% | 27% | +0.21 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 03/06/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 24/07/2026 | 16th | 80/1 | 0% | 12% | +0.12 |