10
Great
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 7 · OR 67
Pontefract · Autism In Racing Handicap · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Newcastle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Carlisle | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Pontefract | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Beverley | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 37/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength56%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 11/08/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 55% | -0.19 |
| 19/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |