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13

King's Crown

6yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 3 · OR 66

Pontefract · Autism In Racing Handicap · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won twice on all-weather at Newcastle last winter. Bit better than the bare result on turf of late, finishing second of those who raced in near side group when tenth in big-field Ayr handicap (5f) 18 days ago. This looks tougher, however.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 22/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 78 · 5f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/01/2026 · OR 78 par22/014OR 784 @ Newcastle 04/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 77 · 5f Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/02/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Southwell 02/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 76 · 6f16y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 76 par2/044OR 765 @ Wetherby 26/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 75 · 5f110y Goo 135 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Pontefract 22/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 73 · 5f3y Goo 133 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 73 par22/055OR 735 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 73 · 5f Goo 134 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 72 · 5f Goo 140 · below its mark13/07/2026 · OR 72 par13/075OR 725 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 71 · 5f7y Gd 131 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 20 · OR 69 · 5f Goo 137 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 69 par17/095OR 69projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr510th10th0
2026-08-01Hamilton55th5th0
2026-07-13Ayr510th10th0
2026-06-16Thirsk54th4th0
2026-05-22Pontefract53rd3rd0
2026-04-26Wetherby55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0126/0413/0717/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 26/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength49%

Delivery trend +3.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/01/20265th16/116%43%+0.27
04/02/20266th14/126%0%-0.26
02/04/20266th22/10%44%+0.44
26/04/20265th15/261%20%-0.41
22/05/20263rd12/137%78%+0.41
16/06/20264th8/158%67%+0.09
13/07/202610th9/153%10%-0.43
01/08/20265th28/10%60%+0.60
17/09/202610th22/10%53%+0.53