14
Valentine Catcher
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 14 · OR 60
Pontefract · Autism In Racing Handicap · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Ripon | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-09-08 | Leicester | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Carlisle | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Doncaster | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Redcar | 6 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 4-10 · tight 64/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 19/06/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.12 |
| 03/07/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 26/09/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 56% | -0.33 |