12
Almarada Prince
5yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 12 · OR 79
Pontefract · Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap (Div 1) · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength32%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Beverley | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ripon | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 61/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 30% | -0.12 |
| 27/03/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 16/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 74% | -0.03 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 95% | +0.21 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 16/09/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 73% | -0.17 |