Commanche Falls
9yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 7 · OR 87
Pontefract · Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap (Div 1) · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Ayr | 2 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
| 2026-09-05 | Thirsk | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Ripon | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 2 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Hamilton | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Bahrain | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 94% | +0.41 |
| 29/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 94% | +0.26 |
| 19/02/2026 | 13th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.36 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 25/07/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 05/09/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 13% | -0.43 |
| 19/09/2026 | 16th | 50/1 | 0% | 32% | +0.32 |