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11

It Just Takes Time

8yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 6 · OR 81

Pontefract · Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#11

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Front runner who got back on scoreboard at Beverley (7f, good to firm) in July but has found life tougher in bigger fields on his 3 subsequent outings. Now just 1 lb above that last winning mark but hard to fancy.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ripon 08/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 80 · 6f Gd 131 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 80 par8/054OR 804 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 22 · OR 78 · 7f Goo 133 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Wetherby 04/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 76 · 7f Goo 131 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 76 par4/064OR 764 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 78 · 7f Goo 140 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Beverley 04/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 80 · 7f96y Goo 135 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 80 par4/074OR 804 @ Beverley 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 80 · 7f96y Goo 131 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 80 par3 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 84 · 7f Goo 129 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 84 par1/083OR 842 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 84 par2 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 17th of 24 · OR 83 · 6f Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 83 par18/092OR 83projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr217th16th+1
2026-08-15Ripon28th7th+1
2026-08-01Thirsk39th9th0
2026-07-20Beverley41st2nd−1
2026-07-04Beverley43rd4th−1
2026-06-16Thirsk42nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0516/061/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 6-13 · tight 61/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength24%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/05/20266th10/147%38%-0.10
23/05/202612th28/10%48%+0.48
04/06/20262nd8/158%92%+0.34
16/06/20262nd10/382%89%+0.06
04/07/20263rd9/488%71%-0.17
20/07/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
01/08/20269th11/142%43%+0.01
15/08/20268th33/10%46%+0.46
18/09/202617th25/10%30%+0.30