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Musical Touch

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 3 · OR 86

Pontefract · Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Scored at Southwell in April and also bagged 21-runner event at York (6f) in June. Not disgraced off a career-high mark with third of 9 at Thirsk early last month but got stuck in the mud in Silver Cup at Ayr most recently. Cheekpieces reapplied.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Chepstow 07/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 84 · 7f16y GS 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/08/2025 · OR 84 par7/082OR 843 @ Thirsk 06/09/2025 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR 83 · 6f Goo 133 · below its mark06/09/2025 · OR 83 par2 @ Ayr 19/09/2025 · Pos 15th of 25 · OR 83 · 6f Sft 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 83 par19/092OR 834 @ Southwell 02/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 80 · 6f16y Std 135 · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Ripon 08/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 84 · 6f Gd 135 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 84 par8/054OR 844 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 21 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 139 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 84 par2 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 21 · OR 88 · 6f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 88 par25/072OR 883 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 88 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 88 par2 @ Ayr 19/09/2026 · Pos 18th of 23 · OR 88 · 6f Hvy 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 88 par19/092OR 88projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Ayr218th17th+1
2026-09-05Thirsk33rd3rd0
2026-07-25York212th11th+1
2026-06-13York41st2nd−1
2026-05-08Ripon47th8th−1
2026-04-02Southwell41st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/082/0425/0719/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength75%

Delivery trend +8.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/08/20256th7/163%38%-0.26
06/09/202515th11/486%7%-0.79
19/09/202515th20/10%42%+0.42
02/04/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
08/05/20267th9/276%25%-0.51
13/06/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
25/07/202612th25/10%45%+0.45
05/09/20263rd6/168%75%+0.07
19/09/202618th28/10%23%+0.23