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10

Papa Cocktail

7yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 1 · OR 81

Pontefract · Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#13

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Largely consistent veteran who still looked as good as ever when getting back to winning ways in ready fashion at Southwell early last month. Easy to strike a line through his subsequent Redcar effort (raced on unfavoured stand-side rail) so he'd be folly to discount.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Doncaster 02/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 79 · 6f2y Goo 124 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 79 par2/053OR 794 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 20 · OR 80 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Doncaster 05/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 79 · 6f2y GF 129 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 79 par5/064OR 794 @ Doncaster 26/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 78 · 6f2y GF 128 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Windsor 13/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 78 · 6f12y Goo 138 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 78 par13/074OR 784 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 78 · 6f20y Std 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Doncaster 15/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 78 · 5f143y GF 133 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 78 par15/084OR 784 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 78 · 6f17y Std 133 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Redcar 15/09/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 82 · 5f217y Goo 142 · below its mark15/09/2026 · OR 82 par15/094OR 82projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Redcar413th14th−1
2026-09-03Southwell41st2nd−1
2026-08-15Doncaster44th5th−1
2026-07-31Wolverhampton46th7th−1
2026-07-13Windsor43rd4th−1
2026-06-26Doncaster42nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0526/0615/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 12-13 · tight 87/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/20262nd12/137%80%+0.43
23/05/202610th16/116%53%+0.37
05/06/20265th4/179%67%-0.12
26/06/20262nd9/276%86%+0.09
13/07/20263rd7/282%82%+0.00
31/07/20266th13/266%44%-0.21
15/08/20264th5/174%67%-0.07
03/09/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
15/09/202613th6/168%8%-0.61